Modeling and trend analysis of climatic variables of Ranchi district, Jharkhand
Analysis of climatic variables of Ranchi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21921/jas.v8i2.7295Keywords:
Mann Kendall, Sen’s slope, ARIMA, forecasting and trend analysisAbstract
In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the temporal variation in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall, and average annual maximum and minimum temperature for the period 1901-2015 over Ranchi district of Jharkhand, India. Long-term changes in rainfall, temperature was determined by Man-Kendall rank statistics and Sen’s slope, and forecasting of time series was determined by ARIMA model. The results revealed that there was significant decrease of average rainfall in the month of February and August while increase in month May and Pre-monsoon season. Average rainfall in the month of February, May, August and Pre-monsoon season showing insignificant increasing as well as decreasing rainfall trend. The average annual maximum and minimum temperature showing decreasing and increasing trend over Ranchi district during the period 1901 to 2015. This paper also describes five-year prediction of rainfall and temperature climatic variables.
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